3x3 on Performance of Governing Party in Local Government Elections 2025

24 days ago by Manthri.lk under Analysis

The much-delayed local government (LG) election – initially due in March 2022, was finally held on 6 May 2025. It comes after a General Election, which swept the National People's Power (NPP) party into a majority government for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history.  

The voter turnout at this LG election was 61.8%, compared to the 68.9% at the General Election, which had more interest and attention. 

How did electoral support turn out and change in this LG election for the governing NPP relative to the General Election six months prior? 

The metric we use to measure reduction in electoral support is the Percentage Reduction in Vote Share (PRiVS) from the general to the LG election. It is the reduction in vote share from general to LG election, as a percentage of the vote share in the general election. Here is an example to understand it precisely: if a party received 60% of the vote share in an area in the general election and but only 45% of the vote share in the LG election, its vote share reduces by 15 (60-45); then PRiVS = 15/60 = 25%.  

Here are 3 x 3 insights into the NPP’s electoral outcome in the LG election focusing on how it changed from the general election. 

I Results at National Level 

1. The NPP had the largest vote share of 43.3% in this LG election – mapping to 121 seats if it had been a parliament election; in contrast to 61.6% of vote share and 159 seats at the actual parliament election in 2024. 
2. PRiVS (Percentage Reduction in Vote Share) for the NPP was around 30% nationwide.  
3. The five best known parties competing with the NPP were SJB, SLPP, UNP, ITAK, and SB. They all increased their vote share relative to the general elections, except for the UNP. 

II Results by Province (Exhibit 1) 

1. The NPP lost vote share compared to the general election in all nine Provinces. 
2. PRiVS (Percentage Reduction in Vote Share) for the NPP was 30% ± 2% in seven provinces. One exception was North Central Province, where it was 24.3%. The other exception was the Northern Province, where it had the lowest PRiVS at only 12.6%. 
3. The NPP had the largest vote share among contesting parties in eight of the nine provinces. Ironically, the one province in which they came second was the Northern Province, where they had the lowest PRiVS; but were comprehensively overtaken by ITAK.  

III Results by District (Exhibit 2) 

1. The NPP lost vote share compared to the general election in 21 of the 22 electoral districts. The exception was the Vanni district, where it had a very small increase.  
2. PRiVS (Percentage Reduction in Vote Share) for the NPP was above 30% for half the districts; and below 20% for 4 of the districts.
3. The NPP had the largest vote share among contesting parties in 19 out of the 22 electoral districts. They lost first place to ITAK in Jaffna and Batticaloa districts. Ironically NPP also lost first place in the only district where its vote share increased – that was in the Vanni district, where ITAK again took the lead. 

Exhibit 1: NPP Percentage Reduction in Vote Share (PRiVS) by Province

Exhibit 2: NPP Percentage Reduction in Vote Share (PRiVS) by District